The potential outbreak of highly pathogenic avian flu (HPAI) in Europe could be predicted by several local factors, according to a recent study published in Scientific Reports. Factors such as the minimum temperature reached in autumn, water levels in lakes and ponds in winter, and the presence of mute swans (Cygnus olor) were identified as key predictors in the study.
HPAI outbreaks pose a serious threat to both animal and public health. The increase in avian influenza virus infections in mammals during the 2022 outbreaks raised concerns about the potential for a spillover event in humans. Understanding the factors that can contribute to the likelihood of an HPAI outbreak is crucial in preventing such events.
Researchers, led by Joacim Rocklöv, developed a machine learning model trained on data from HPAI outbreaks in Europe between 2006 and 2021. The model considered various factors such as seasonal temperature and precipitation conditions, local wild bird populations, poultry density, vegetation density, and water levels. The accuracy of the model was tested using outbreak data from 2022 and 2023.
The study found that the coldest recorded temperature in autumn had the most significant impact on the likelihood of an outbreak. Warmer minimum temperatures in some regions were associated with a higher likelihood of an outbreak, while in others, they were linked to a lower likelihood. Cold winter and spring temperatures also increased the likelihood of an outbreak.
Additionally, low vegetation density between October and December, and lower-than-expected water levels in lakes and ponds between January and March, were associated with a decreased likelihood of an outbreak. The presence of mute swans in a local population was found to increase the likelihood of an outbreak.
These findings could be instrumental in developing tailored surveillance programs for HPAI across Europe, enhancing the early detection of outbreaks. By understanding the environmental factors that influence the spread of avian flu, authorities can implement targeted strategies to mitigate the risks associated with HPAI outbreaks.
For more information on this study, you can refer to the article published in Scientific Reports by Joacim Rocklöv. The DOI for the article is 10.1038/s41598-025-04624-x.
This research, provided by Nature Publishing Group, sheds light on the predictive factors for avian flu outbreaks in Europe and underscores the importance of proactive surveillance and monitoring efforts to prevent and control the spread of HPAI.
