A look back at my 2024 predictions is revealing.
Every year, I take a look into the future of the healthcare industry with my crystal ball. To assess the accuracy of my predictions and refine my forecasting abilities, I’ve decided to revisit my predictions for 2024. What I’ve found is a mix of hits and misses, showcasing the ever-changing nature of one of America’s most dynamic industries.
Without further ado, let’s see which of my bold predictions were on target and which ones missed the mark.
2024 Prediction: Presidential candidates will largely be silent on healthcare.
As anticipated, healthcare was not a major focus of the 2024 presidential campaign. However, I foresee a shift in the future where discussions around healthcare will center on wellness, disease causation, and medications. The increasing mainstream acceptance of fringe ideas may lead to a greater appreciation for science-based healthcare professionals in the long run.
2024 Prediction: Mega-mergers are coming back.
While mega-mergers didn’t see a significant rise in 2024, there was a healthy number of mergers in the healthcare industry. Hospital mergers and notable acquisitions indicate a trend towards increased consolidation, setting the stage for more mergers in the future.
2024 Prediction: Medicare Advantage growth will slow.
Contrary to my prediction, MA enrollment continued to grow in 2024, showcasing the appeal of MA plans due to their rich benefits and cost-saving features. With proposed payment increases and support from key figures, the popularity of Medicare Advantage is expected to rise in the coming years.
2024 Prediction: Startups will vanish. But they’ll be replaced with new ones.
Venture funding for digital health saw a decline in 2024, but this doesn’t spell the end for digital health startups. New ventures with realistic valuations and a focus on integration with traditional healthcare systems are likely to emerge and succeed, especially with the advent of artificial intelligence.
2024 Prediction: DEI will face backlash.
As predicted, backlash against DEI initiatives was observed in 2024, with a decline in demand for chief diversity officers. Despite challenges, many healthcare organizations remain committed to promoting health equity, signaling ongoing efforts in the face of opposition.
2024 Prediction: Clinician Morale Will Continue to Suffer.
While physician burnout rates slightly decreased in 2024, the issue persists due to systemic challenges in healthcare management and leadership. Addressing clinician morale will require significant changes in organizational strategies and operations to support frontline staff effectively.
2024 Prediction: Ozempic, Mounjaro, and other GLP-1’s will grow in popularity.
The increasing popularity of GLP-1 drugs signifies a shift in how obesity and other conditions are treated in the medical field. With FDA approvals for new uses, these medications are expected to gain further acceptance despite challenges in healthcare credibility.
2024 Prediction: Better diagnostics and therapeutics. More questions about how to pay for them.
Advancements in diagnostic tools and medications continue to emerge, offering hope for improved patient outcomes. However, discussions around the cost of these breakthroughs have yet to intensify, highlighting the need for innovative financing solutions in healthcare.
2024 Prediction: Turnover at the Top
In 2024, healthcare leadership saw significant turnover, signaling a year of transition in the industry. New approaches and leadership styles will be essential to navigate regulatory challenges and industry changes, presenting both opportunities and instability.
2024 Prediction: At least one “big tech company” will fold (or reboot) its healthcare efforts
Big tech’s involvement in healthcare continues to evolve, with shifts in strategies and personnel expected in the coming years. Despite challenges, tech companies are driving solutions to improve health information accuracy and address misinformation in the industry.
Overall, my predictions for 2024 show a mix of hits and misses, reflecting the dynamic nature of the healthcare industry. As we look towards 2025, the future promises further changes and surprises in store. Stay tuned for more insights in the year ahead!
