A recent study conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) has revealed that Europe has adapted better to cold temperatures than to heat over the past two decades. The research, published in The Lancet Planetary Health and done in collaboration with the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), indicates a significant decrease in cold-related mortality risk compared to the early 2000s, with a lesser reduction in heat-related deaths.
Analyzing temperature and mortality data from over 800 regions across 35 European countries from 2003 to 2020, the study found that the risk of death at the lowest temperatures decreased by 2% annually, while the risk at the highest temperatures decreased by 1% per year. To address regional variations in vulnerability to extreme temperatures, the researchers introduced a new concept called Extreme-Risk Temperature (ERT), which calculates the temperature threshold for each geographic area based on mortality data and temperature trends.
The study revealed that Europe experienced fewer dangerously cold days (cold-ERT days) each year, while the number of dangerously hot days (heat-ERT days) increased slightly. Notably, regions in Southern Europe, despite their warmer climates, showed a higher risk of mortality from extreme temperatures compared to Northern European regions. Factors such as inadequate housing insulation, lower public health expenditure, and limited access to social support contribute to this disparity.
Lead researcher Zhao-Yue Chen noted that Europe has made significant progress in adapting to cold temperatures, but improvements in coping with heat have been less effective. Only 20 out of 38 European countries have implemented temperature surveillance systems, and 17 countries lack heat-health action plans (HHAPs), highlighting the need for enhanced heat adaptation measures and region-specific strategies to protect vulnerable populations.
The study also examined the combined effects of temperature and air pollution, noting that compound days of extreme temperatures and high pollution levels are decreasing overall. However, the combination of dangerously hot days and high ozone pollution levels is increasing annually. As global warming intensifies, the interaction between extreme temperatures and air pollution, particularly ozone, poses a significant health concern that requires specific strategies for mitigation.
The research was conducted as part of the EARLY-ADAPT project, which aims to study how populations are adapting to public health challenges arising from climate change. The findings highlight the importance of addressing regional disparities in vulnerability to extreme temperatures and developing targeted strategies to protect at-risk populations in the face of climate change.
For more information, the study titled “Trends in Population Exposure to Compound Extreme-risk Temperature and Air Pollution across 35 European countries: a modeling study” can be found in The Lancet Planetary Health (2025). The research was conducted by Zhao-Yue Chen and colleagues from ISGlobal.
