A recent study has projected that millions of people in Europe could face death due to extreme temperatures, primarily heat, by the end of the century. The study, conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, highlights the urgent need for countries to reduce carbon pollution and adapt to the increasing heat levels.
Currently, cold temperatures are responsible for more deaths in Europe than heat. However, the study’s climate simulations of different scenarios revealed a concerning trend. As temperatures rise, the number of heat-related deaths is expected to skyrocket, while cold-related deaths decrease at a slower rate.
Countries like Italy, southern Spain, and Greece are particularly vulnerable to a significant increase in heat-related deaths if emissions of greenhouse gases are not reduced, and adaptation measures such as air conditioning and cooling centers are not implemented. On the other hand, regions like Scandinavia and the United Kingdom may see a decrease in temperature-related deaths due to milder cold temperatures.
Even in the most optimistic scenarios with drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and extensive adaptation efforts, there is still a projected net increase in temperature-related deaths as the global climate warms. The study’s lead author, Pierre Masselot, emphasized that the Mediterranean region is a climate hotspot, with countries like Malta facing a substantial increase in temperature-related deaths by the end of the century.
Western European countries, being wealthier, are better equipped to mitigate the impact of rising temperatures compared to their eastern counterparts. However, the study warns that without proper measures in place, large cities near the Mediterranean could see a significant rise in heat-related deaths in the coming years.
Adaptation strategies such as central air conditioning, increased green spaces, and cooling centers are crucial in lowering the projected death rates in Europe. The aging population in the region adds another layer of vulnerability, making it essential to prioritize measures that protect the health and well-being of residents.
The study’s findings underscore the urgent need for action to address the growing threat of heat-related deaths in Europe. With climate change exacerbating extreme temperatures, countries must prioritize mitigation and adaptation strategies to protect the population and prevent a potential public health crisis.
