The transition from pumpkin spice lattes to turkey and stuffing, and then to ugly sweaters and pop star Christmas albums and specials marks the changing seasons. For professionals, it’s a time to speculate about what the new year may bring in their industry.
End of year predictions are popular as they coincide with the winding down of the year and offer a break from the daily work routine. However, when it comes to predicting how healthcare will evolve by 2025, most forecasts are likely to be inaccurate. This is not due to the incompetence of the predictors, but rather because the healthcare system has developed over many years, making significant changes within a single year unlikely. The complexity of healthcare and the various special interests involved further complicate the accuracy of predictions.
Christmas snowglobe and Merry Christmas text on snow covered old planks on a snowy night background. … [+]
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To inject a bit of Grinch spirit into the season, here are six things that experts believe are unlikely to change in healthcare by 2025, along with a touch of optimism.
1. GLP-1 Access Issues Will Take Time To Solve
GLP-1s have been hailed as revolutionary drugs in recent years, showing promising results in clinical studies. The pharmaceutical companies producing these drugs have seen a significant increase in spending, particularly in Medicaid populations. The announcement of expanding access to GLP-1 drugs by the Biden Administration has sparked excitement in the healthcare community.
However, challenges such as drug shortages and the production of non-FDA approved GLP-1 drugs persist. Finding solutions to improve access and lower costs for these drugs remains crucial for achieving positive outcomes.
While the impact of GLP-1s is promising, it is essential to pair them with proper lifestyle changes for lasting effects. The drugs alone are not a cure-all, and a holistic approach to healthcare is necessary for their effectiveness.
2. Provider Consolidation And Desire For Scale And Efficiency Won’t Stop
Provider consolidation has been on the rise, with various mergers and acquisitions reshaping the healthcare landscape. The trend towards larger healthcare systems and hospital-owned practices is driven by factors such as operational challenges, competition, and revenue uncertainty.
Given the multitude of drivers behind provider consolidation, it is unlikely to slow down in 2025. Relationship dynamics with health plans and consumer access to healthcare will continue to be key challenges for providers.
Despite the hype surrounding generative AI in healthcare and significant investments in the technology, its transformative impact remains largely speculative. While AI shows potential in enhancing various healthcare functions, its actual implementation and effectiveness are yet to be fully realized.
The application of generative AI in healthcare, particularly in ambient scribe technology, appears to be gaining traction. However, there is skepticism surrounding the scalability of AI-first businesses in healthcare. David Schweppe from MedeAnalytics emphasizes that while generative AI is useful in some cases, it is not a one-size-fits-all solution for the healthcare industry.
Robin Glass from Included Health stresses the importance of maintaining the human connection in healthcare and using AI to enhance, rather than replace, that connection. There are concerns about the ability of AI-first companies to differentiate themselves in a competitive market.
Tim Cook’s announcement about Apple’s focus on health in 2019 sparked speculation about the impact on healthcare, but progress seems slow. Industry insiders are skeptical about the potential disruption from tech and retail giants in healthcare.
Data interoperability continues to be a slow-moving process, with complexities around access, standards, and incentives. Despite challenges, there is optimism about the economic benefits of data liberation in healthcare.
Antitrust scrutiny in healthcare remains a topic of interest, with questions about the government’s stance on competition and regulation. The DOJ’s antitrust case against Google, initiated under the previous administration, highlights ongoing concerns about anticompetitive practices in the industry. The Department of Justice’s website review indicates an average of around 42 antitrust case filings during the first Trump Administration compared to approximately 32 antitrust filings per year during the Biden Administration. Given this data and the current political and public healthcare environment, it is likely that there will be a continued focus on single firm conduct among dominant firms, particularly in healthcare.
The ongoing investigation into UnitedHealth Group by the DOJ and the FTC’s conflict with pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) are expected to persist due to bipartisan pressure from policymakers. Nick Stepro, Chief Product and Technology Officer of Arcadia, highlights the challenges in health data interoperability affecting innovation and insights in healthcare.
Despite potential changes in antitrust enforcers, the awareness of interoperability issues, especially concerning large technology incumbents, remains high. FTC Chairperson Lina Khan and Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter have acknowledged these issues and the impact on competition within the healthcare sector.
Looking ahead to 2025, while significant changes may not be expected on a large scale, there is room for rational optimism in the healthcare system. With advancements in technology and tools to address cost challenges, there is potential for long-term progress. Alon Joffe, CEO of Eleos Healthcare, emphasizes the current opportunities to impact the healthcare system positively.
Taking a longer-term view of progress, as suggested by Barclay of Insight Partners, can help navigate the challenges within the healthcare industry. Despite the complexities of improving healthcare, Darren Brandt of Sloane PR reminds us to have patience and perseverance as progress takes time.
In a world where predictions about rapid changes abound, it is essential to maintain focus and dedication in working towards long-term improvements in healthcare.
